2021-12-27 17:10| 發(fā)布者: steelfu4mo| 查看: 1514| 評論: 0 |原作者: 佛山萬慶物資
2021年的鋼材價(jià)格一路狂奔，單日破百，走出暴漲暴跌、大起大落的格局，不少老鐵們被這飄忽的鋼價(jià)弄的不知所云，到底是怎么回事呢？
In 2021, steel prices run all the way, one day broke 100, out of the pattern of rise and collapse, ups and downs, many old iron by this drifting steel price, what is going on?
在2021年1月份一噸普通的鋼材大概是5000塊錢左右，可是在2021年的5月創(chuàng)出歷史新高，國內(nèi)最缺鋼的時(shí)候，一噸的價(jià)格就能賣到7000多塊錢。短短的4-5個(gè)月時(shí)間，鋼鐵價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲，不管買了鋼材，還是買了鋼材的股票，輕松就可以賺30%以上的錢。
In January 2021, a ton of ordinary steel was about 5,000 yuan, but it hit a record high in May 2021, with the most shortage of steel in China, the price of a ton could be sold to more than 7,000 yuan.In just 4-5 months, steel prices continue to rise, whether you buy steel, or you buy steel stocks, you can easily make more than 30% of the money.
在10月中旬后，國內(nèi)鋼鐵期貨和現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格一改此前的高位震蕩走勢，雙雙出現(xiàn)大幅回落難道是跌久必漲，漲久必跌的定律嗎？
In the middle of October, domestic steel futures and spot prices changed the previous high shock trend, both appeared sharply fall is a long will rise, rise long will fall the law?
煤炭價(jià)格突破歷年的高點(diǎn)600元/噸，國慶節(jié)前動(dòng)力煤主力合約漲至1408元/噸，焦炭、焦煤價(jià)格在強(qiáng)勢上漲后，也屢破歷史記錄。國慶節(jié)后，動(dòng)力煤的強(qiáng)勢上漲，帶動(dòng)了鋼鐵原料價(jià)格的上漲，國內(nèi)大規(guī)模限電預(yù)期，更使得鋼材期貨市場多頭有恃無恐。而且動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格的暴漲已經(jīng)嚴(yán)重影響到國計(jì)民生，國家重拳出擊，總理在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇會(huì)議上再次提及要做好煤炭保供穩(wěn)價(jià)工作，緩解能源供應(yīng)緊張，打壓煤炭價(jià)格力度空前，并上升到法律層面。動(dòng)力煤價(jià)格從10月19日的1982元/噸跌到11月2日的841元/噸，11個(gè)交易日下跌1100多點(diǎn)。
Coal prices broke through the previous high of 600 yuan / ton, before the National Day thermal coal main contract rose to 1408 yuan / ton, coke, coking coal prices in a strong rise, but also repeatedly broke the historical record.After the National Day, the strong rise of thermal coal, led to the rise of steel raw material prices, the domestic large-scale power limit is expected, more make the steel futures market bulls have to rely on.Moreover, the surge in thermal coal prices has seriously affected the national economy and people's livelihood. The country has hit hard. At the World Economic Forum, the premier once again mentioned to ensure coal supply and stabilize prices, ease the energy supply shortage, suppress coal prices with unprecedented efforts, and rise to the legal level.The price of thermal coal fell from 1,982 yuan / ton on October 19 to 841 yuan / ton on November 2, down more than 1,100 yuan in 11 trading days.
在11月份，全月走勢呈現(xiàn)“大幅下探，低位回漲”，上半月黑色系期貨集體回調(diào)，原料價(jià)格輪番下跌，需求季節(jié)性轉(zhuǎn)弱，現(xiàn)貨市場漲少跌多，價(jià)格重心整體下移；下半月宏觀面出現(xiàn)暖意，黑色系期貨超跌反彈，加之各地鋼廠紛紛托市，市場情緒得到提振，現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格低位回升，在這個(gè)過程中，局部需求也有好轉(zhuǎn)。
In November, the whole month trend showed "sharply down, low rise", the first half of the black futures collective pullback, raw material prices fell in turn, the demand seasonal weaker, spot market rose less fell more, the overall price center of gravity down; the second half of the macro warm, black futures rebound, together with the market sentiment is boosted, spot price low recovery, in this process, local demand also improved.
分析師說鋼價(jià)大跌的原因有三點(diǎn)：1.受限產(chǎn)和洪水影響，山西、陜西等地煤企的開工率有所降低，煤炭供給下降一定程度推高了煤價(jià)；2.過高的煤價(jià)導(dǎo)致了下游采購成本增高，引起了如斷電、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)成本上漲等連鎖反應(yīng)；3.國家多方出手調(diào)控煤價(jià)：增加煤炭供給，查處囤積居奇、哄抬物價(jià)；提高大宗商品交易成本，防止惡意炒作；有關(guān)部門深入煤企，為煤炭價(jià)格設(shè)定“天花板”。游資從看多轉(zhuǎn)為看空，紛紛離場，熱度下降，流動(dòng)性減弱。
Analysts said three reasons for falling steel prices: 1. Under limited production and flood, Shanxi, Shaanxi and other places decreased operating rate, coal supply increased coal prices; 2. Excessive coal prices lead to higher downstream procurement costs, resulting in chain reaction, such as power failure, rising industrial production costs; 3. National control coal prices: increase coal supply, investigate hoarding, price raising; increase commodity transaction costs, prevent malicious speculation, relevant departments go into coal enterprises to set a "ceiling" for coal prices.Hot money from bullish to bearish, have left the field, heat decreased, liquidity weakened.
鋼價(jià)的暴漲，讓投資者和投機(jī)者賺到了錢，但是對國內(nèi)基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)，和工業(yè)生產(chǎn)來說是一個(gè)難題，因?yàn)?/span>鋼材應(yīng)用于國家建設(shè)，房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目開發(fā)，家用電器，汽車制造，工業(yè)制品，甚至連人人手上拿的手機(jī)，都少不了鋼材。所以鋼材的價(jià)格過高，對于普通老百姓的生活和購物也會(huì)帶來影響，因?yàn)樯a(chǎn)成本提高了，售價(jià)就容易跟隨上漲。
The surge in steel prices makes investors and speculators earn money, but it is a difficult problem for domestic infrastructure and industrial production, because steel is used in national construction, real estate project development, household appliances, automobile manufacturing, industrial products, and even mobile phones, are without steel.Therefore, the price of steel is too high, which will also affect the life and shopping of ordinary people, because the production costs increase, the price is easy to follow the rise.
總體來看，未來鋼鐵需求或?qū)⒎€(wěn)中趨降，增速也會(huì)出現(xiàn)持續(xù)回落，推動(dòng)整個(gè)行業(yè)邁上高質(zhì)量發(fā)展軌道。我們國家的應(yīng)對能力無論是新冠疫情，還是電荒，還是原材料價(jià)格，還是糧食和蔬菜的價(jià)格，都控制得很好的。
In general, the steel demand may stabilize in the future, and the growth rate will continue to fall, pushing the whole industry to the track of high-quality development.Our country's ability to cope with the COVID-19 epidemic, electricity shortage, raw materials prices, and food and vegetables is well controlled.
